SUMMARY - China, Russia, and Twenty-First Century Global Geopolitics - Desconhecido



Here is a summary of the key points:

  • Xi Jinping's concept of the "Chinese Dream" links the CCP's goals to China's past glory and ambitions to rejuvenate the nation by achieving modernization milestones by 2049 and 2021 respectively.

  • Critics argue it exaggerates China's peaceful history and assumes the CCP must take central role, without acknowledging internal divisions or expansionism.

  • Xi has expressed dissatisfaction with the US-led security order in Asia and wants China to play a bigger role.

  • Initiatives like AIIB, BRICS, SCO show China no longer hides its strength and aims to shape world order and institutions.

  • AIIB's support by US allies despite opposition indicated China's growing influence.

  • BRI aims to economically integrate Eurasia under Chinese leadership through large infrastructure investments, highlighting Chinese ambition to shape the region.

  • BRI has economic and strategic aims for China but risks include poor project selection, political instability in partner countries, and financial risks for Chinese investors in poorer nations.

  • China uses institutions and initiatives to shape the global order while asserting territorial claims, though aims regarding reform vs overhaul of existing order are debated.

  • Overall goal seen as reclaiming preeminent position in Asia, and perhaps globally.

    Here is a summary:

  • China and Russia cooperate economically and politically to increase their influence and challenge what they see as US dominance of the international order.

  • Key areas of cooperation include trade, investment, energy deals, and coordinating positions in international organizations like the UN. However, economic ties remain modest compared to China's trade with other partners.

  • Militarily, they participate in joint exercises and Russia sells arms to China. But their security priorities do not fully align and Russia is concerned about Chinese influence in Central Asia near its borders.

  • Both desire a multipolar world where no single country dictates outcomes, and have similar stances on issues like non-interference in domestic affairs and opposition to conditionality on human rights.

  • However, China's rise is more gradual within the existing order, while Russia takes a more confrontational approach. And China maintains strong economic links to the West that Russia lacks.

  • Overall, shared interests in strategic autonomy unite them, but differences in threat perception, region priorities, and relationship with the West mean full alignment is unlikely. Cooperation is issue-based more than an ideologically unified bloc.

    Here is a summary of the key points:

  • Russia's economy contracted in 2015 and 2016 due to falling energy prices (oil and gas are major exports) and Western sanctions imposed over Ukraine/Crimea.

  • Economic growth has been weak overall in recent years, averaging around 0.7% annually from 2014-2021. Inflation has also been a challenge.

  • The sanctions, along with the pandemic, have accelerated Russia's shift towards trading with Asia, especially China and India. Trade with Europe declined significantly.

  • China is now Russia's largest trading partner. Bilateral trade has grown substantially in the past decade as the two countries strengthen economic ties.

  • Russia joined the China-led Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank in 2015, seeing it as a counterpart to Western-dominated financial institutions. Investment from China has helped support some industries.

  • Going forward, Russia aims to further diversify its economy away from oil/gas dependence by developing high-tech/manufacturing sectors. But Western sanctions continue to constrain diversification efforts. Maintaining political and economic ties with Asia remains important.

    Here is a summary of the key points:

  • Russia's economy faces challenges from its large size, cold climate, reliance on land transport, and dependence on energy exports. Low oil prices in recent years have hurt the economy.

  • Trade and economic ties with China have increased in importance for Russia, as China is now Russia's largest import and export partner. However, the relationship remains uneven with Russia mainly exporting raw materials.

  • Major infrastructure and transportation projects have been proposed to better integrate the economies, but progress has been slow due to political and economic hurdles. Disagreements over pricing and distribution of benefits have also hampered cooperation.

  • Energy exports, especially oil and gas, are a key component of Russia-China economic relations. However, pipeline projects have faced long delays in negotiation and construction due to pricing disputes and geopolitical concerns.

  • Western sanctions on Russia after 2014 prompted it to seek more investments from China. But Chinese companies have also been cautious of risks, and economic slowdowns have made large projects less attractive for both sides.

    Here is a summary of the key points:

  • Russian and Chinese naval exercises have increased in scale and complexity over time, involving ships, submarines, aircraft and special forces from both militaries.

  • Early exercises focused on demonstrating Russian military equipment for potential arms sales to China. Later exercises improved operational coordination and interoperability.

  • The exercises serve political purposes by signaling solidarity between Russia and China in response to US alliances and activity in the Asia-Pacific region. They aim to show the two countries are not isolated geopolitically.

  • Cooperation through the Shanghai Cooperation Organization has helped manage tensions over Central Asia, though its effectiveness is debated. Both countries see value in cooperating to address threats like separatism and extremism.

  • Some Chinese analysts call for strengthening maritime security cooperation with Russia to counter perceived threats from the US, Japan and others to sea lanes and energy imports.

    Here is a summary of the key points:

  • Russia and China have increased cooperation but also have some underlying strategic tensions given their history and shifting power dynamics. Russia is wary of China's growing military and economic might.

  • Military cooperation acts as a counterbalance to U.S. influence but is not a full alliance. Both continue military modernization while managing issues like technology transfers.

  • Exercises near China showcase Russia's defense capabilities in its far east amid concerns over potential Chinese intentions toward border territory there.

  • Cooperation through groups like SCO expands beyond Central Asia but potential disputes don't undermine broader political and economic engagement.

  • Naval exercises have symbolic value for expanding maritime security cooperation, while academics discuss ideas like new regional architectures and order.

  • Both Putin and Xi seek greater global status and influence for their nations, believing capabilities and values support regained "great/major power" roles to help shape international relations.

    Here is a summary of the key points:

  • Russia exerts influence globally through its permanent UNSC seat and membership in international groups like BRICS and SCO. It often aligns with China at the UN to promote common goals.

  • Russia-China cooperation is important for managing security challenges in regions like the Middle East and Asia. Both seek to develop relationships worldwide and feel entitled to influence neighbors.

  • Growing economic power, especially of China, enhances their global clout through investments. China's Belt and Road Initiative could impact trade and security networks.

  • While influential, Russia and China face some limitations. Russia wants to challenge the West but its power is diminished. China focuses more on economic interests than shaping the world order.

  • Both are dissatisfied with Western dominance and want a multipolar world with less US influence and more collective decision-making. Their partnership aims to reduce unilateral US influence globally.

In summary, Russia and China see their growing partnership as a potential counterbalance to US power. They aim to establish alternative global economic and political institutions to challenge Western dominance.

Here is a summary of the key points:

  • Russia and China have both taken a more assertive stance internationally in recent years, challenging Western influence.

  • In Syria, Russia directly intervened militarily in support of the Assad regime, while China has provided diplomatic and material backing.

  • Both countries oppose Western initiatives like regime change and aim to assert the primacy of state sovereignty over internal affairs.

  • Their partnership at the UN and on regional issues like Syria limits the ability of the US and allies to shape outcomes.

  • Economic and security interests also drive their cooperation - China relies on Middle East oil and wants regional stability, while Syria is strategically important for Russia.

  • However, complete alignment is difficult as Russia and Iran have some diverging interests in Syria. Turkey also poses obstacles with its priorities.

  • Finding a negotiated political solution remains elusive given lack of consensus on Assad's future role and no clear international strategy for combating terrorism.

  • Uncertainty around Syria's political future path persists due to control of different groups in various areas and international deadlock over solutions.

So in summary, Russia and China have cooperated to shore up the Syrian regime and resist Western influence, but internal Syrian tensions and diverging priorities among outside powers hamper resolution of the conflict.

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Here is a summary of the key points about Russia and China's cooperation on counterterrorism:

  • Russia and China see themselves as primary targets of international terrorism, especially from groups like ISIS and militants from Central Asia.

  • They cooperate bilaterally and through organizations like the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) to enhance intelligence sharing, joint counterterrorism exercises, and policy coordination against terrorism.

  • Central Asia is a key focus as a source of threats. Cooperation aims to bolster security and counter violent extremism in the region.

  • Moscow and Beijing take a tough counterterrorism approach and see the UN playing a leading coordination role through new resolutions and policies.

  • Bilateral cooperation includes regular meetings of a counterterrorism working group and expanding collaboration in international organizations.

  • The SCO is an important multilateral forum, hosting large joint exercises and an intelligence sharing center. Russia and China see deeper cooperation as important to combatting the growing global terrorism threat.

    Here is a summary of the key points:

  • Russia and China view the changing character of modern warfare as increasingly blurred lines between war and peace, relying more on non-military means like information operations.

  • They see scientific and technological development as important for gaining strategic advantages, with foresight helping anticipate future security challenges.

  • Both advocate for stronger government control over internet governance and cyberspace through concepts like "cyber sovereignty."

  • Cooperation has increased between the two on these issues, with shared stances emphasizing censorship and international counterterrorism cooperation online.

  • While their definitions of threats like terrorism differ from Western democracies, preventing such issues is a stated priority for Russo-Chinese cybersecurity and internet governance cooperation.

  • Overall the passage outlines the strategic mindsets and growing partnership between Russia and China regarding emerging technologies, information operations, and global internet/cybersecurity frameworks.

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    Here is a summary:

This analyzes the China-Russia strategic partnership by examining its historical foundations dating back to the Cold War era, current economic and military cooperation under Xi and Putin, as well as common stances on international conflicts. It also discusses emerging non-traditional security challenges both countries face like terrorism and cyber threats.

Historically, communist ideological ties laid the groundwork for the partnership. Today, economic projects under Xi's Belt and Road Initiative and energy trade with Russia have strengthened economic objectives. Military relations have also grown, seen through high-level visits between Xi and Putin.

China and Russia generally take similar stances on conflicts like Ukraine, Syria and the Middle East. However, the analysis questions whether disagreements could challenge the partnership going forward. It explores whether cooperation on emerging issues like terrorism in Xinjiang and cyber security will help the relationship endure and address non-traditional threats.

Overall, the piece analyzes the foundations, present cooperation and divergences across different policy areas within the strategic partnership, while considering its future prospects for dealing with security challenges as national interests may not always align.

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