SUMMARY - Football Hackers - Christoph Biermann
Data and analytics are revolutionizing football analysis, providing new insights by combining statistics with video footage.
Cognitive biases like confirmation bias, outcome bias, and narrative bias distort judgments in scouting, tactics, and evaluations.
Expected goals (xG) models quantify chance quality based on shot location and context. This provides an objective metric of performance.
Luck plays a huge role in football outcomes due to low scores. Results often need to be more accurate in the actual quality of teams and managers.
Metrics like xG can separate signal from noise, leading to better transfers, tactics, and manager retention decisions.
Personnel and models that ignore biases and narratives in favor of mathematical, data-driven analysis offer new frontiers for objectivity in football.
Video analysis has been revolutionary for football tactics and coaching. It enables a detailed review of matches and opponents.
In the 1990s, Borussia Dortmund struggled to scout upcoming European opponents. Michael Henke solved this by working with a handball video analyst to create tactical scouting videos.
Henke and Markus Schulz founded Sports Analytics and secured rights to film Bundesliga matches with extra cameras to capture tactics. This allowed coaching staff to study matches while traveling.
Technology progressed from VCRs to CD-ROMs to online video access. Video enabled new coaching techniques like halftime analysis with edited clips.
No other innovation has influenced football as much in the past 25 years. Video allows coaches to learn from others, analyze games, instruct players visually, and extensively scout opponents.
Pioneers like Henke brought video analysis to clubs like Dortmund and Bayern Munich. It is now ubiquitous in elite football, though smaller clubs are still catching up. Video has dramatically changed the game's coaching, scouting, and tactical side.
Video analysis has become an integral part of football management. It allows managers to study games and develop tactics meticulously.
The ubiquity of video footage has increased the tactical sophistication of the sport. Fans are also more interested in tactics.
Data analytics has grown enormously but still needs to improve in football, like inaccurate tracking data and unclear correlations with winning.
Some are questioning football data analytics's usefulness, as many metrics describe past events rather than providing meaningful insights.
New advanced metrics aim to provide additional context and quantify previously hard-to-measure contributions, especially for players in deeper positions.
Metrics like expected goals (xG) and packing can reveal tactical problems and player tendencies not visible from watching games.
However, human judgment is still required to interpret the numbers in proper context. Stats offer glimpses into deeper layers of the game but cannot holistically capture all aspects.
Julian Nagelsmann became manager of Hoffenheim at just 28 years old, after previously coaching the club's U19 team.
He implemented a structured training program focused on ingraining tactical concepts by repeating detailed drills and exercises.
The training is tailored each day of the week towards different objectives like tactical education, preparing for opponents, video analysis, and complete practice matches.
Nagelsmann focuses on forcing opponents into mistakes and quick counterattacking. He wants his team to intercept passes and unbalance the defense.
Players work on speeding up their thinking and decision making. Video screens at training illustrate points quickly.
Nagelsmann provides constant feedback and adjustments during drills to fine-tune executing play patterns quickly.
His innovative cognitive training methods contributed to Hoffenheim achieving their highest-ever Bundesliga finish under his management.
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